This was released by the University of Florida this week!
Nearly 400 non travel-related Zika infections will occur in Florida before the end of the summer, according to new projections by biostatisticians at the University of Florida and other institutions.
In addition, the virus is projected to spread to several other Southeastern states with handfuls of cases projected to pop up from Texas to South Carolina and even Oklahoma.
The projections come weeks after the Florida Department of Health identified the nation’s first locally acquired cases of the Zika virus in Miami-Dade County. UF researchers had already produced projections for other countries, which have experienced local Zika virus transmission for months – and in some cases, years.
Though the virus has been in South America for more than a year, some scientists doubted that it would ever come to the United States.
“It wasn’t clear at first whether mosquito densities were high enough to sustain an outbreak in the U.S.,” said Dr.Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics in the UF College of Public Health and Health Professions and the College of Medicine.
Once the first cases of locally transmitted Zika fever were identified in Miami, however, Longini and his colleagues felt more comfortable publishing 2016 estimates projecting the number of locally transmitted cases that they expect will occur in Florida.
The model projects 395 Zika infections in Florida by Sept. 15 due to local transmission and 79 symptomatic cases by the same date. In addition, they forecast that a median of eight of the infections will be in pregnant women during their first trimester.
Other states expected to see locally acquired Zika are below, followed by the number of locally acquired cases and the number of symptomatic cases:
Alabama – 11, 2
Arkansas – 3, 1
Georgia – 6, 1
Louisiana – 4, 1
Mississippi – 10, 2
Oklahoma – 12, 2
South Carolina – 16, 3
Texas – 5, 1