Okay, I'm calling it - recession's over

[Susan Horn]

Thanks, dbcooper.

I confess to my thread title being more than a bit tonge-in-cheek. I'm aware that municipalities and school districts everywhere are facing critical budget shortages. Personally, we've had our own "recession" going on for several years now. On the other hand, local visitors seem to be spending more discretionary money so far this season and in greater numbers. No, I don't have stats, just lots of people carrying shopping bags and crowding the restaurants. Does anyone else get that impression? And if it's true, does it mean that a certain segment of the population, at least, is more confident that they'll retain their jobs? Since most (maybe all?) economic markers are lagging ones, - measuring the past - maybe this little sociology experiment we call sowal is a leading indicator of the beginning of some glimmer of improvement?

I like the way you think.

 

[Miss Critter]

I like the way you think.

Thanks, Susan, but maybe our "fast" is making me light-headed.

 

[scooterbug44]

I do think things are improving slightly in Sowal, but I also think that it is far from over.

There are some places and people in the US that are weathering this quite well, but there are many that are not - so while I don't know if what we are seeing in Sowal is people prioritizing/saving so they can have a good vacation or a true overall improvement, I know that it isn't even close to over for most of the US.

 

[AndrewG]

I just don't see the recovery in economic terms, not yet at least. Everything is being judged on who is not sucking as bad.

Until jobs return things will keep declining. Taxes, cities and communities will continue to suffer.

 

[gmarc]

I think people have become delusional. wall street now cheers when homes sales are only down 7% year over year and 70% off there peaks. real estate agents in sowal are cheering 100 sales in a month when the avg price is still falling and down a whopping 50% in 3 years are so. whos' taking the pain on 50% loses? I think the usa is in for the shock of there existence. the economy was in fatal cancer stage and the us gov't opened there fiscal fire hose and printed $12 trillion which served as a morphine for the patient. the patient no longer feels pain yet the cancer still grows. the bottom line is the gov't has put off the evenutal pain for a while but the problem still grows. the health care passing is the first shot across the bow as it now starts the beginning of massive tax increases. these tax increases will choke the economy. throw in the the monstrous debt which can be hardly serviced and i see nothing good coming.My theory is the economy is now doing ok because during the massive foreclosures and defaulting of debt the individual had little skin in the game and no real money. many are still in there homes paying no payments so they can spend that money in the economy. I'VE PULLED A TON OF SALE CONTRACTS ON 30-A FROM 2004-2007 AND I FOUND VERY LITTLE REAL CASH WAS PUT DOWN ON THESE HOMES. MANY WERE 100% FINANCING. SO THE ONLY PERSON OR COMPANY HURT WERE THE BANKS. THE WHOLE IDEA OF RECESSIONS IS TO PURGE THE WEAK AND EXCESSES. THE GOV'T REFUSED TO ALLOW MASS FAILURES THUS WE HAVE TONS OF CO'S THAT SURVIVED THAT SHOULD HAVE GONE UNDER. THIS IS A MASSIVE WASTE OF CAPITAL AND WILL HURT IN THE LONG RUN.this is the fatal mistake a still struggling japan made 20 years ago